An analytical assessment of how the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict reshapes Armenia's strategic position in the South Caucasus․
The Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, have fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Caucasus, placing Armenia in an increasingly precarious position. As regional powers realign and traditional security arrangements crumble, Armenia faces critical decisions that will determine its survival and prosperity for decades to come.
The Escalation: Operation Rising Lion and Its Immediate Aftermath
In the early morning hours of June 13, 2025, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" - the most significant military action against Iran since the Islamic Revolution. The strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, including the critical Natanz enrichment site, ballistic missile factories, and military infrastructure across Tehran and other key locations. The operation resulted in the death of Major General Hossein Salami, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with other senior military commanders and nuclear scientists.
Iran's response was swift but measured, launching over 100 drones in retaliation while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed "severe punishment" for Israel. The escalation represents the culmination of months of failed nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran, with President Trump's administration ultimately unable to prevent Israeli action despite diplomatic efforts.
This confrontation between Israel and Iran has immediate implications for the South Caucasus, where Armenia finds itself caught between competing regional powers and shifting alliance structures.
Armenia's Strategic Dilemma: Between Iran and the West
The Iranian Lifeline
Armenia's relationship with Iran has become increasingly critical since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and subsequent loss of Russian protection. The $500 million arms deal signed with Iran in July 2024, providing Armenia with Shahed drones and advanced air defense systems, represents more than a commercial transaction - it constitutes a strategic lifeline for a nation facing existential threats.
The joint military exercises conducted in April 2025 near the Iran-Armenia border further cemented this partnership, with Iran explicitly warning against any territorial changes in the Caucasus. Iran's support for Armenia's territorial integrity stems from its own strategic calculations: maintaining access to Europe through Armenian territory and preventing the completion of the Zangezur Corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan directly to Turkey while bypassing Iranian territory.
However, this Iranian embrace comes with significant costs. Armenia's deepening ties with Tehran complicate its relationships with Western partners and potentially expose it to secondary sanctions. More critically, Armenia risks becoming a proxy battleground if the Israel-Iran conflict escalates further.
The Western Alternative
Simultaneously, Armenia has been cultivating relationships with Western powers, particularly France, India, and to a lesser extent, the United States. This diversification strategy reflects Armenian leadership's recognition that dependence on any single partner, whether Russia or Iran - creates vulnerabilities.
France has emerged as Armenia's most vocal European supporter, providing both diplomatic backing and military equipment. The relationship serves French interests in countering Turkish influence while offering Armenia access to advanced Western military technology. India's role as Armenia's largest defense supplier reflects New Delhi's own strategic calculations regarding Pakistan's support for Azerbaijan.
Regional Power Dynamics and Their Impact on Armenia
Russia: The Declining Hegemon
Russia's position in the South Caucasus has fundamentally weakened due to its Ukraine commitments. The traditional "unwritten alliance" between Russia, Iran, and Armenia has dissolved, leaving Armenia exposed. Moscow's flexible approach toward the Zangezur Corridor and its maintenance of good relations with Azerbaijan demonstrate that Russian and Armenian interests no longer align.
Most significantly, Russia has shown it cannot or will not provide meaningful security guarantees to Armenia. This reality was starkly demonstrated during the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, when Russian peacekeepers proved ineffective. With Russia's military resources concentrated in Ukraine, Armenia cannot rely on Moscow's protection in future conflicts.
Potential Russian Actions:
- Limited diplomatic mediation to prevent regional escalation that could complicate Russian-Iranian economic projects
- Continued arms sales to both Armenia and Azerbaijan to maintain influence
- Possible increased engagement if the Ukraine conflict reaches resolution, though this remains speculative
United States: Opportunity Amid Crisis
The Trump administration views the South Caucasus through the lens of great power competition and energy security. While primarily focused on containing Iran and supporting Israel, Washington recognizes Armenia's potential value as a transit hub and democratic partner in a strategically important region.
The current escalation presents both risks and opportunities for US-Armenia relations. Armenia's ties with Iran complicate American engagement, but Armenia's demonstrated willingness to distance itself from Russia aligns with broader US strategic objectives in the region.
Potential US Actions:
- Increased pressure on Armenia to limit Iranian cooperation, particularly military ties
- Enhanced support for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process to create regional stability
- Potential infrastructure investments in Armenia as part of broader connectivity projects
- Conditional security assistance tied to Armenia's westward orientation
Turkey: Regional Ascendancy
Turkey's role in the region has grown dramatically, leveraging its partnerships with Azerbaijan and Israel to project power across the South Caucasus. Ankara's mediation between Israel and Turkey, conducted in Baku, symbolizes the new regional order that potentially marginalizes both Armenia and Iran.
The completion of the Turkey-Azerbaijan gas pipeline to Nakhchivan in March 2025 demonstrates Turkey's success in reducing Iranian influence while strengthening Azerbaijani independence. For Armenia, Turkish regional dominance represents an existential challenge, given the closed border and historical animosity.
Potential Turkish Actions:
- Continued support for Azerbaijan's maximalist demands in peace negotiations
- Possible conditional normalization with Armenia if regional dynamics shift
- Enhanced cooperation with Israel and Azerbaijan against Iranian influence
- Economic pressure through continued border closure
European Union: Balancing Act
The EU faces competing priorities in the South Caucasus. Energy security needs have driven closer ties with Azerbaijan, while democratic values and humanitarian concerns favor Armenia. The current escalation forces Brussels to choose between these competing interests.
The EU's civilian monitoring mission in Armenia represents a significant commitment, but its effectiveness depends on broader regional stability. European leaders must balance their desire to support Armenian democracy with practical energy and security considerations.
Potential EU Actions:
- Continued diplomatic support for Armenia within existing frameworks
- Enhanced economic assistance tied to democratic reforms
- Pressure for completion of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement
- Limited ability to provide meaningful security guarantees due to geographic constraints
France: Strategic Partnership
France stands as Armenia's most reliable Western partner, with President Macron personally committed to Armenian security. French military equipment sales and diplomatic support provide Armenia with alternatives to Russian and Iranian dependence.
However, France's ability to project power in the South Caucasus remains limited. French support is primarily diplomatic and economic, with limited capacity for direct military intervention in case of renewed conflict.
Potential French Actions:
- Continued military equipment sales and training programs
- Enhanced diplomatic pressure on Azerbaijan through EU channels
- Possible increased presence through humanitarian and development programs
- Limited but symbolically important security cooperation
- Scenario Analysis: Armenia's Potential Futures
Scenario 1: Controlled Escalation (35% probability)
In this scenario, the Israel-Iran conflict remains contained through diplomatic intervention, with Russia, China, and European powers successfully mediating a de-escalation. Iran focuses on internal consolidation rather than regional projection.
Implications for Armenia:
- Continued but limited Iranian support without triggering Western sanctions
- Gradual progress on Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations under international pressure
- Slow economic recovery with increased Western investment
- Maintained territorial integrity but limited prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh return
Scenario 2: Regional Proxy War (30% probability)
The Israel-Iran conflict expands through proxy actions across the region, with Armenia becoming a potential staging ground for Iranian operations against Israeli and Azerbaijani interests.
Implications for Armenia:
- Direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts through Iranian pressure
- Azerbaijani military action justified by Armenian-Iranian cooperation
- International isolation and potential sanctions
- Possible partition of Armenian territory or refugee crisis
Scenario 3: Russian Satellite State (20% probability)
Russia reasserts control over Armenia through a combination of economic pressure, political manipulation, and security guarantees. This could involve regime change in Yerevan, installing a more Moscow-friendly government, and Armenia accepting special status for the Zangezur Corridor in exchange for territorial integrity guarantees.
Implications for Armenia:
- Regime change replacing Pashinyan with a pro-Russian government
- Formal territorial integrity guarantees except for "special status" Zangezur Corridor
- Complete loss of sovereignty in foreign policy and security matters
- Economic integration limited to Eurasian Economic Union framework
- End of Western integration prospects and democratic development
- Population exodus of Western-oriented educated classes
Scenario 4: Western Integration (10% probability)
Armenia successfully navigates toward Western integration, limiting Iranian ties while securing alternative security arrangements through France, EU, and potentially NATO partnerships.
Implications for Armenia:
- EU candidate status and eventual membership prospects
- Enhanced security cooperation with France and other Western powers
- Economic integration with European markets
- Potential resolution of territorial disputes through international mediation
Scenario 5: Iranian Satellite (5% probability)
Armenia becomes fully dependent on Iran for security and economic survival, accepting satellite status in exchange for protection against Azerbaijani and Turkish pressure.
Implications for Armenia:
- Complete alignment with Iranian foreign policy
- Isolation from Western institutions and markets
- Potential territorial guarantees but loss of sovereignty
- Long-term demographic and economic decline
Strategic Recommendations for Armenia
Immediate Actions (0-6 months)
- Diplomatic Balance: Maintain Iranian military cooperation while expanding dialogue with Western partners about alternative security arrangements.
- Economic Diversification: Accelerate negotiations for increased EU trade and investment to reduce dependence on Iranian economic ties.
- Regional Peace: Pursue completion of the Azerbaijan peace agreement to remove pretexts for military action while the international community is distracted.
Medium-term Strategy (6-24 months)
- Security Architecture: Develop a comprehensive security strategy that gradually reduces Iranian dependence while building Western partnerships.
- Transit Hub Development: Implement the "Crossroads of Peace" initiative to position Armenia as a regional connectivity hub, attracting international investment.
- Democratic Consolidation: Strengthen democratic institutions and rule of law to maintain Western support and integration prospects.
Long-term Vision (2-5 years)
- European Integration: Pursue EU candidate status while maintaining constructive relationships with regional powers.
- Regional Leadership: Position Armenia as a bridge between Europe and Asia, leveraging its strategic location and democratic credentials.
- Conflict Resolution: Work toward comprehensive regional peace that addresses territorial disputes while ensuring Armenian security and prosperity.
Conclusion: Armenia's Narrow Path Forward
Armenia faces perhaps the most challenging period in its modern history. The Israel-Iran escalation has accelerated regional realignments that threaten to leave Armenia isolated and vulnerable. The weakening of Russian protection, the complications of Iranian partnership, and the uncertainties of Western support create a complex strategic environment requiring careful navigation.
Success will depend on Armenia's ability to maintain strategic autonomy while gradually shifting toward Western integration. This requires sophisticated diplomacy that preserves essential relationships while building new partnerships. The alternative - becoming a proxy in great power competition - could threaten Armenia's very existence as an independent state.
The next 12-18 months will be crucial in determining whether Armenia can successfully navigate this transition or whether it will be forced into a dependent relationship that sacrifices sovereignty for security. The choices made today will shape Armenia's trajectory for generations to come.